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The Markets Message
"Some theorize that Fed success in lowering inflation through higher interest rates is producing or exacerbating financial instability. But history reveals no tradeoff between inflation and turbulence. The empirical fact is that low inflation is associated with a more stable financial environment."
Interest-Rate Outlook – 4/23
~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
HCWE & Co.

Publication Highlights as of May 1, 2023

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Interest-Rate Outlook
Another false tradeoff: financial instability versus inflation
Some theorize that Fed success in lowering inflation through higher interest rates is producing or exacerbating financial instability. But history reveals no tradeoff between inflation and turbulence. The empirical fact is that low inflation is associated with a more stable financial environment.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economy Watch
How healthy is the US labor market, and how much did the pandemic damage it?
At 3.5 %, the unemployment rate is back to what it was before the pandemic. But is that a return to full employment? The total of those not employed to the population of working age, at 40 %, is also back to what it was before. But it is still 4 points higher than its historical sustained low.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of June 1, 2023
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Emerging-Market Selector
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of June 1, 2023
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
Briefing Points on the Global Market Outlook
For all the talk of recessions, output in the Western world is not experiencing a consistent decline -- merely stagnation. The deceleration of the inflation rate due to last year's large drop in the price of oil has ended, and a reacceleration will accompany any rebound in energy prices.

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HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! How The Government Is Making The Silicon Valley Bank Crisis Worse, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 4/23/23 Read
bullet Why It's So Hard to Stop Inflation, Virtual Presentation, CFA Switzarland, 2/9/2023 Watch
bullet Norm Reversion for Oil Indicates Less-Than-Transitory Inflation, Opinion, Real Clear Markets, 3/6/2023 Read
bullet The Fed's Dim Chances - Podcast, The Independent Research Forum, 1/30/2023 [Play]
bullet Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation?, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/27/2022 Read
bullet Recession Still Nowhere To Be Seen, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/19/2022 Read
bullet Inflation Is About the Quality of Money, Not Quantity, David Ranson, Barron's - Economy & Policy, 11/25/22 Read
bullet Explaining, Diagnosing, Predicting and Curbing Inflation, CFA Stamford Webinar, 9/8/2022 - key: $b1Dt!.d Watch

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