Markets Forecasting Markets

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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment


The Markets Message

HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets!

With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor.

We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings.

Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message.

R. David Ranson,
President and
Director of Research,
HCWE & Co.


Highlights from Recent Publications

Authorized users can view recent publications by signing in and visiting the Archives

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Outlook
Don't buy the stock market's "bubble" myth - 03/31/2025
A selloff may seem a peculiar time to address the subject of stock-market over-valuation. But only a few weeks ago that seemed all too concerning to many risk-averse investors. In fact, a thorough review of the post-WW II period uncovers no reason to take bubble theory seriously.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Tactical Asset Selector
How oil prices help to anticipate asset-class performance - 04/30/2025
The link between stock prices and crude oil one year in the past is mirrored by other risky assets such as junk bonds and even commodities. The common factor is real GDP growth.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic and Investment Observations
The astounding cost of progressive income taxation - 03/31/2025
Since the 1940s the US income tax has obeyed a remarkable and revealing regularity. However high tax rates have been imposed and however deeply they have been cut, tax collected has been slightly less than 20 percent of GDP. Vast amounts of income are taxed at much higher rates and cost the economy proportionately.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economy Watch
The falling dollar, tariffs, and the trade deficit - 04/24/2025
The likelihood of permanently higher import tariffs starts a chain of events leading to a reduced trade deficit. But along the way much damage is done to the dollar, inflation, domestic investment and growth.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 04/21/2025
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Emerging-Market Selector
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 04/17/2025
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
Briefing Points on the Economic and Market Outlook - 04/30/2025
The radical economic policies of the Trump administration insert many uncertainties into the economic and capital-market picture. Inflation continues to be held down by depressed oil prices which, in turn, are partly a symptom of elevated geopolitical risk.

Get the stories behind the headlines! Contact HCWE & Co. at +1(978)468-4575
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HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! Think Inflation Is Cooling? Think Again. Randall W. Forsyth, Barrons.com, May 18, 2024 Read
bullet Dr. David Ranson's 2024 Financial Forecast, The Financial Quarterback, YouTube 2/10/2024 Play
bullet Taming the Inflation Beast, S. Constable, Briefings, Jan-Feb, 2024 Read
bullet What's Really Driving Inflation? It Ain't The Federal Reserve, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 8/28/23 Read
bullet What G.D.P.'s Cousin Can Tell Us About the Economy, P. Coy, New York Times, 8/8/23 Read
bullet How The Government Is Making The Silicon Valley Bank Crisis Worse, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 4/23/23 Read
bullet Why It's So Hard to Stop Inflation, Virtual Presentation, CFA Switzarland, 2/9/2023 Watch
bullet Norm Reversion for Oil Indicates Less-Than-Transitory Inflation, Opinion, Real Clear Markets, 3/6/2023 Read
bullet The Fed's Dim Chances - Podcast, The Independent Research Forum, 1/30/2023 [Play]
bullet Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation?, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/27/2022 Read
bullet Recession Still Nowhere To Be Seen, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/19/2022 Read
bullet Inflation Is About the Quality of Money, Not Quantity, David Ranson, Barron's - Economy & Policy, 11/25/22 Read

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