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 "The power of inflation to explain stock-market performance over multi-year horizons has been impressive. Outside the tech boom experience of 2000, the ability of Shiller's CAPE index to forecast stock-market performance five to ten years ahead has been weak. " Strategic Asset Selector – 5/21 |
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~ R. David Ranson, President and Director of Research HCWE & Co. |
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 Interest-Rate Outlook |
| Forward gold: a superior early-warning inflation indicator |
| It is well known that forward prices are less sensitive to current circumstances than spot prices. Applying this principle to gold, we obtain a measure of inflation potential that is geopolitics-free. It is signaling substantial inflation yet to come. |
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Strategic Asset Selector |
| The stock market's next ten years: a question of inflation -- not valuation |
| The power of inflation to explain stock-market performance over multi-year horizons has been impressive. Outside the tech boom experience of 2000, the ability of Shiller's CAPE index to forecast stock-market performance five to ten years ahead has been weak. |
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Economic Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of June 1, 2021 |
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Equity-Market Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of June 1, 2021 |
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Webcast Summary |
| What the Pandemic Experience is Telling Us About Extreme Fiscal Policy |
| Market economies bounce back automatically from recessions, but politicians claim that rapid recovery depends on government stimulus. |
