Markets Forecasting Markets

HCWE Publications

HCWE publications (PDFs) are available to clients and the public and can be accessed via the Archives menu option. Clients with active subscriptions can Sign In to access 'restricted' content (less than two years old) from the segments to which they subscribe. Clients may also request copies of publications by email at any time. Students, researchers and the public may access 'unrestricted' publications only (more than two years old). See the following documents for recent and legacy publication lists:

Publication Highlights: Past month

Publications to date for current year: 2020

Legacy publications from 1992: Composite

Call: US 978-468-4575

How to access PDFs from Adobe Cloud: Get Help

The Markets Message
"Rebounds from the pandemic are widely attributed to government stimulus. But the evidence from the G-20 countries indicates otherwise."
International Forecaster – 3/21
~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
HCWE & Co.

Publication Highlights as of April 1, 2021

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic and Investment Observations
Why post-pandemic economic growth will be subdued
There are widespread claims that the US economy is entering a new business cycle that will begin with a boom. This is a mis-diagnosis. Now that the country's financial capital is back to being fully employed there is no way to finance a boom.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  International Forecaster
The myth of stimulus as revealed by recent international experience
Rebounds from the pandemic are widely attributed to government stimulus. But the evidence from the G-20 countries indicates otherwise.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of April 1, 2021
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of April 1, 2021
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Webcast Summary
Virtually Complete Recovery -- but Subdued Growth Beyond
Both the economic expansion since the Great Recession of 2008-09 and the 12-year bull market in stocks are still alive following the coronavirus interruption. But there is no scope for the widely forecast boom because to recover from the setback the economy has had to use all the available financial capital to which it has access.

HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! Interview with Charles Heller, Podcast, Liberty Watch Radio, KVOI, Tucson 4/4/2021 Listen
bullet New! DOES GOVERNMENT “STIMULUS” REALLY STIMULATE?, The Beacon, Independent Institute, 3/30/2021 Read
bullet How Did Forecasters Get the Pandemic Economy So Wrong?, The Beacon, Independent Institute, 12/1/2020 Read
bullet Advancing without Effective Monetary or Fiscal Policy, Featuring R. D. Ranson, PodBean.com, The IRF Podcast, October 19, 2020 View
bullet Resilient US Economy Has Overcome the COVID-19 Recession, Independent Institute, , 10/9/2020 Read
bullet Five reasons why investors might buy negative-yielding debt — Simon Constable, Aier.com, 10/5/2020 Read
bullet Letting Inflation Rip Higher is Deeply Flawed — Simon Constable, Aier.com, September 8, 2020 Read
bullet Gold Funds Fell ... Despite Coronavirus — Simon Constable, WSJ.com, April 5, 2020 Read

[more]