Markets Forecasting Markets

HCWE Publications

HCWE publications are available to clients and the public. Clients may request copies of all publications at any time. Students, researchers and the public may access legacy publication (more than two years old). See the following documents for recent and legacy publication lists:

How to access PDFs from Adobe Cloud: Get Help

Publication Highlights: Past month

Publications to date for current year: 2020

Legacy publications from 1992: Composite

Call: US 978-468-4575

The Markets Message
"If the economy is fueled by putting capital to work, it is also constrained on the upside by the supply of capital. Now that US output is almost fully recovered there is no unused capital to fuel a further boom. Inflation, however, is another story."
Interest-Rate Outlook – 2/21
~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
HCWE & Co.

Publication Highlights as of March 1, 2021

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Interest-Rate Outlook
Inflationary boom? Boom -- no way; Inflation, maybe
If the economy is fueled by putting capital to work, it is also constrained on the upside by the supply of capital. Now that US output is almost fully recovered there is no unused capital to fuel a further boom. Inflation, however, is another story.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Outlook
Stock-market reshuffling if inflation breaks out
Since the election there have been growing signs of a weak dollar and accelerating inflation. This is bearish for the stock market in general and for growth stocks in particular.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Fixed-Income Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of March 1, 2021
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  International Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of March 1, 2021
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
In Transition toward Greater Risk Tolerance but a Weaker Dollar
Until the end of 2020, evidence for an uptick in inflation was weak, let alone signs of a new super-cycle in commodities or emerging markets. But around election time the decline in the dollar's foreign-currency value has accelerated, and the price index for consumer goods has now risen to more than 1 percent above its pre-pandemic level. Simultaneously, the level of risk tolerance implied by credit spreads has finally fallen back to what it was a year ago.

HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet How Did Forecasters Get the Pandemic Economy So Wrong?, The Beacon, Independent Institute, , 12/1/2020 Read
bullet Advancing without Effective Monetary or Fiscal Policy, Featuring R. D. Ranson, PodBean.com, The IRF Podcast, October 19, 2020 View
bullet Resilient US Economy Has Overcome the COVID-19 Recession, Independent Institute, , 10/9/2020 Read
bullet Five reasons why investors might buy negative-yielding debt — Simon Constable, Aier.com, 10/5/2020 Read
bullet Letting Inflation Rip Higher is Deeply Flawed — Simon Constable, Aier.com, September 8, 2020 Read
bullet Gold Funds Fell ... Despite Coronavirus — Simon Constable, WSJ.com, April 5, 2020 Read
[more]