Markets Forecasting Markets

HCWE Publications

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The Markets Message
"The power of inflation to explain stock-market performance over multi-year horizons has been impressive. Outside the tech boom experience of 2000, the ability of Shiller's CAPE index to forecast stock-market performance five to ten years ahead has been weak. "
Strategic Asset Selector – 5/21
~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
HCWE & Co.

Publication Highlights as of June 1, 2021

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Interest-Rate Outlook
Forward gold: a superior early-warning inflation indicator
It is well known that forward prices are less sensitive to current circumstances than spot prices. Applying this principle to gold, we obtain a measure of inflation potential that is geopolitics-free. It is signaling substantial inflation yet to come.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Strategic Asset Selector
The stock market's next ten years: a question of inflation -- not valuation
The power of inflation to explain stock-market performance over multi-year horizons has been impressive. Outside the tech boom experience of 2000, the ability of Shiller's CAPE index to forecast stock-market performance five to ten years ahead has been weak.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of June 1, 2021
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of June 1, 2021
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Webcast Summary
What the Pandemic Experience is Telling Us About Extreme Fiscal Policy
Market economies bounce back automatically from recessions, but politicians claim that rapid recovery depends on government stimulus.

HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! Interview Josh Jalinski, Part II, The Financial Quarterback, WABC 5/7/2021 Watch
bullet New! Interview Josh Jalinski, Part I, The Financial Quarterback, WABC 5/7/2021 Watch
bullet Interview with Charles Heller, Podcast, Liberty Watch Radio, KVOI, Tucson 4/4/2021 Listen
bullet DOES GOVERNMENT “STIMULUS” REALLY STIMULATE?, The Beacon, Independent Institute, 3/30/2021 Read
bullet How Did Forecasters Get the Pandemic Economy So Wrong?, The Beacon, Independent Institute, 12/1/2020 Read
bullet Advancing without Effective Monetary or Fiscal Policy, Featuring R. D. Ranson, PodBean.com, The IRF Podcast, October 19, 2020 View

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