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 "National output is in a slow decline, but other indicators point to a more favorable picture. Though inflation is out of control, the economy is stable, whatever its growth rate." Economy Watch – 7/22 |
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~ R. David Ranson, President and Director of Research HCWE & Co. |
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 Tactical Asset Selector |
| Low-grade debt: an alternative asset class when equities fall? |
| The stock market's decline this year is a predictable result of the inflation surge. But it also reflects consistently low economic growth. Low-grade fixed income offers an investment alternative that is shielded from the former -- but not from the latter. |
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Economy Watch |
| Looking for "recession" in all the wrong places |
| National output is in a slow decline, but other indicators point to a more favorable picture. Though inflation is out of control, the economy is stable, whatever its growth rate. |
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Economic Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of August 1, 2022 |
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Equity-Market Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of August 1, 2022 |
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Synopsis |
| Inflation is now degrading the real economy |
| Stagflation continues. Real GDP performance in the United States has slipped below zero amid a falling stock market, and sentiment in the markets and among forecasters has deteriorated. Still, there is no sign of an abrupt descent into recession - rather a consistently disappointing performance. And other economic measures are less pessimistic. Meanwhile, a temporary stabilization of the inflation rate may be underway with the cresting of the second wave of the dollar's depreciation in terms of forward gold. Inflation in other countries has been catching up. |
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