HCWE publications are available to clients and the public. Clients may request copies of all publications at any time. Students, researchers and the public may access legacy publication (more than two years old). See the following documents for recent and legacy publication lists:
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Publication Highlights: Past month
Publications to date for current year: 2020
Legacy publications from 1992: Composite
Call: US 978-468-4575
 "If the economy is fueled by putting capital to work, it is also constrained on the upside by the supply of capital. Now that US output is almost fully recovered there is no unused capital to fuel a further boom. Inflation, however, is another story." Interest-Rate Outlook – 2/21 |
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~ R. David Ranson, President and Director of Research HCWE & Co. |
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 Interest-Rate Outlook |
| Inflationary boom? Boom -- no way; Inflation, maybe |
| If the economy is fueled by putting capital to work, it is also constrained on the upside by the supply of capital. Now that US output is almost fully recovered there is no unused capital to fuel a further boom. Inflation, however, is another story. |
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Equity-Market Outlook |
| Stock-market reshuffling if inflation breaks out |
| Since the election there have been growing signs of a weak dollar and accelerating inflation. This is bearish for the stock market in general and for growth stocks in particular. |
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Fixed-Income Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of March 1, 2021 |
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International Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of March 1, 2021 |
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Synopsis |
| In Transition toward Greater Risk Tolerance but a Weaker Dollar |
| Until the end of 2020, evidence for an uptick in inflation was weak, let alone signs of a new super-cycle in commodities or emerging markets. But around election time the decline in the dollar's foreign-currency value has accelerated, and the price index for consumer goods has now risen to more than 1 percent above its pre-pandemic level. Simultaneously, the level of risk tolerance implied by credit spreads has finally fallen back to what it was a year ago. |
