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The Markets Message
"National output is in a slow decline, but other indicators point to a more favorable picture. Though inflation is out of control, the economy is stable, whatever its growth rate."
Economy Watch – 7/22
~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
HCWE & Co.

Publication Highlights as of August 1, 2022

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Tactical Asset Selector
Low-grade debt: an alternative asset class when equities fall?
The stock market's decline this year is a predictable result of the inflation surge. But it also reflects consistently low economic growth. Low-grade fixed income offers an investment alternative that is shielded from the former -- but not from the latter.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economy Watch
Looking for "recession" in all the wrong places
National output is in a slow decline, but other indicators point to a more favorable picture. Though inflation is out of control, the economy is stable, whatever its growth rate.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of August 1, 2022
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of August 1, 2022
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
Inflation is now degrading the real economy
Stagflation continues. Real GDP performance in the United States has slipped below zero amid a falling stock market, and sentiment in the markets and among forecasters has deteriorated. Still, there is no sign of an abrupt descent into recession - rather a consistently disappointing performance. And other economic measures are less pessimistic. Meanwhile, a temporary stabilization of the inflation rate may be underway with the cresting of the second wave of the dollar's depreciation in terms of forward gold. Inflation in other countries has been catching up.

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HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! Interview Josh Jalinski, The Financial Quarterback, WABC 10/2/2021 Listen
bullet Expect Inflation To Surge In Japan, But Fall In The UK, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 7/30/2021 Read
bullet Interview with Charles Heller, Podcast, Liberty Watch Radio, KVOI, Tucson 4/4/2021 Listen
bullet DOES GOVERNMENT “STIMULUS” REALLY STIMULATE?, The Beacon, Independent Institute, 3/30/2021 Read
bullet Will Higher Inflation Lift Bond Yields? Maybe Not, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/30/2020 Read
bullet How Did Forecasters Get the Pandemic Economy So Wrong?, The Beacon, Independent Institute, 12/1/2020 Read

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