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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment

The Markets Message

HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets!

With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor.

We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings.

Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message.

R. David Ranson,
President and
Director of Research,
HCWE & Co.

Highlights from Recent Publications

Authorized users can view recent publications by signing in and visiting the Archives

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Interest-Rate Outlook
What drives the Treasury-bond market up or down? - 02/29/2024
Financial capital is constantly flowing back and forth between the markets for Treasury bonds and equities. In each market one of the motivating forces is uncertainty or anxiety about future returns. Implied volatility (VIX and MOVE) quantifies these uncertainties and, when they are high, helps predict performance.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Outlook
The stock market's secret sauce: super-cheap energy - 02/27/2024
In a world full of old and new geopolitical threats the price of energy fluctuates widely, with effects on inflation and stock-market prices that are not adequately recognized.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economy Watch
Don't expect geopolitical risk to elevate energy prices -- it depresses them! - 01/31/2024
The aftermath of a war scare or geopolitical event is a lowering of oil prices and energy generally. This is obscured to some extent by a temporary boost to the price of gold.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  International Forecaster
Emerging-market equity choices: 2023 results and 2024 prospects - 01/31/2024
The top performer among stock markets in 2023 was Argentina, with a 66 percent return. This was not an anomaly, but fits with a consistent relationship between equity performance and the stabilization of a rapidly falling currency.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Fixed-Income Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 02/19/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 01/29/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Emerging-Market Selector
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 01/29/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Sector Watch
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 02/19/2024
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
Briefing Points on the Economic and Market Outlook at the beginning of January 2024 - 01/31/2024
The US economy grew at a 3.4 percent rate in the fourth quarter, folloig 4.9 percent in the third. Whether or not the improvement can be sustained is uncertain. The junk bond market continues to signal unusually low default rates. But while output in the US and the Western world has been fluctuating over the past two years it has not grown consistently. Either way, other developed countries are not keeping up.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  HCWE Webcast
Challenging Conventional Wisdom: Evidence and Doctrine around Recessions - 02/19/2024
Recession continues to be most unlikely in the foreseeable future. But there are even worse threats. The recent pickup in US growth doesn't change the outlook for long-lasting stagnation. And a geopolitical normalization following current international conflicts would push energy prices further up and bring inflation back. The Fed is powerless to control these forces.

Get the stories behind the headlines! Contact HCWE & Co. at +1(978)468-4575
or send us a message.

HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! Dr. David Ranson's 2024 Financial Forecast, The Financial Quarterback, YouTube 2/10/2024 Play
bullet New! Taming the Inflation Beast, S. Constable, Briefings, Jan-Feb, 2024 Read
bullet What's Really Driving Inflation? It Ain't The Federal Reserve, S. Constable,, 8/28/23 Read
bullet What G.D.P.'s Cousin Can Tell Us About the Economy, P. Coy, New York Times, 8/8/23 Read
bullet How The Government Is Making The Silicon Valley Bank Crisis Worse, S. Constable,, 4/23/23 Read
bullet Why It's So Hard to Stop Inflation, Virtual Presentation, CFA Switzarland, 2/9/2023 Watch
bullet Norm Reversion for Oil Indicates Less-Than-Transitory Inflation, Opinion, Real Clear Markets, 3/6/2023 Read
bullet The Fed's Dim Chances - Podcast, The Independent Research Forum, 1/30/2023 [Play]
bullet Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation?, S. Constable,, 12/27/2022 Read
bullet Recession Still Nowhere To Be Seen, S. Constable,, 12/19/2022 Read
bullet Inflation Is About the Quality of Money, Not Quantity, David Ranson, Barron's - Economy & Policy, 11/25/22 Read