Markets Forecasting Markets

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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment

The Markets Message

HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets!

With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor.

We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings.

Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message.

R. David Ranson,
President and
Director of Research,
HCWE & Co.

Highlights from Recent Publications

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Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Interest-Rate Outlook
Does it pay to buy bonds 'on the dips'? - 11/09/2023
Some bond-market analysts believe that this year's selloff is overdone, and that a rebound is on the way. History does not support their optimism.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economy Watch
The price of oil: how far to normalization? - 10/20/2023
There is a simpler way to forecast the price of oil over the coming months, more powerful than any of the subjective methods in widespread use. The trick is to quantify what price would be in equilibrium with the capital markets at any given time. At present oil is more than 25 percent below that.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Fixed-Income Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 11/30/2023
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 10/31/2023
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Emerging-Market Selector
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 10/31/2023
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Sector Watch
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 11/22/2023
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
Briefing Points on the Economic and Market Outlook - 10/31/2023
Evidence for output growth in the US is ambiguous. Global prospects for higher inflation have increased in the last few months, over both a longer-term and a shorter-term horizon. First, the US dollar has accelerated its rate of depreciation relative to gold priced in distant forward markets, the most stable of all monetary standards. Second, the price ratio between crude oil and forward gold is substantially below its historical norm, and has begun to close the gap.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  HCWE Webcast
The Predictable Normalization of Energy Prices - 11/30/2023
Conventional methods find the price of crude oil almost unforecastable. But there is another way. Oil contains a lasting and systematic element of predictability that is obscured by its sometimes violent volatility. The oil price is constantly being pulled back toward an equilibrium or norm relative to the dollar price of gold. At present that norm for WTI is in the neighborhood of $120 a barrel.

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HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet New! What's Really Driving Inflation? It Ain't The Federal Reserve, S. Constable,, 8/28/23 Read
bullet New! What G.D.P.'s Cousin Can Tell Us About the Economy, P. Coy, New York Times, 8/8/23 Read
bullet How The Government Is Making The Silicon Valley Bank Crisis Worse, S. Constable,, 4/23/23 Read
bullet Why It's So Hard to Stop Inflation, Virtual Presentation, CFA Switzarland, 2/9/2023 Watch
bullet Norm Reversion for Oil Indicates Less-Than-Transitory Inflation, Opinion, Real Clear Markets, 3/6/2023 Read
bullet The Fed's Dim Chances - Podcast, The Independent Research Forum, 1/30/2023 [Play]
bullet Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation?, S. Constable,, 12/27/2022 Read
bullet Recession Still Nowhere To Be Seen, S. Constable,, 12/19/2022 Read
bullet Inflation Is About the Quality of Money, Not Quantity, David Ranson, Barron's - Economy & Policy, 11/25/22 Read