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 "Little has changed. The widely-advertised recession has still failed to show up in either the US or Europe. Having not learned from the world's speedy bounce back from Covid, consensus thinking still underestimates the resilience of market economies, especially in the face of rate hikes and other well-recognized threats. For 2022's second half the most recent US data show a small gain at the expense of other countries." Synopsis – 1/23 |
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~ R. David Ranson, President and Director of Research HCWE & Co. |
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 Economy Watch |
| Beware: Energy is temporarily cheap and inflation is unsustainably low |
| Relief about inflation is premature. The collapse in global oil prices is huge but temporary. It's a much better candidate for explaining the lowering of US inflation than the Fed's rate increases. |
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Economic Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of February 1, 2023 |
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Equity-Market Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of February 1, 2023 |
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Graphic Insights |
| Implied volatility as a signal of performance opportunities in stocks and gold |
| VIX is a well-known measure of stock-market risk, and a useful indicator of fluctuating uncertainty or anxiety. It has great power to explain setbacks and rebounds in the S&P 500 index. It can be said to reflect the market's own opinion of its future prospects, and is therefore an attractive means of avoiding the guesswork that plagues other approaches. |
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Synopsis |
| Briefing Points on the Global Market Outlook |
| Little has changed. The widely-advertised recession has still failed to show up in either the US or Europe. Having not learned from the world's speedy bounce back from Covid, consensus thinking still underestimates the resilience of market economies, especially in the face of rate hikes and other well-recognized threats. For 2022's second half the most recent US data show a small gain at the expense of other countries. |
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