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Market-driven tools for asset allocation and strategic investment
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The Markets Message
"Little has changed. The widely-advertised recession has still failed to show up in either the US or Europe. Having not learned from the world's speedy bounce back from Covid, consensus thinking still underestimates the resilience of market economies, especially in the face of rate hikes and other well-recognized threats. For 2022's second half the most recent US data show a small gain at the expense of other countries."
Synopsis – 1/23
~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
HCWE & Co.

Publication Highlights as of February 1, 2023

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economy Watch
Beware: Energy is temporarily cheap and inflation is unsustainably low
Relief about inflation is premature. The collapse in global oil prices is huge but temporary. It's a much better candidate for explaining the lowering of US inflation than the Fed's rate increases.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economic Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of February 1, 2023
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Equity-Market Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of February 1, 2023
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Graphic Insights
Implied volatility as a signal of performance opportunities in stocks and gold
VIX is a well-known measure of stock-market risk, and a useful indicator of fluctuating uncertainty or anxiety. It has great power to explain setbacks and rebounds in the S&P 500 index. It can be said to reflect the market's own opinion of its future prospects, and is therefore an attractive means of avoiding the guesswork that plagues other approaches.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
Briefing Points on the Global Market Outlook
Little has changed. The widely-advertised recession has still failed to show up in either the US or Europe. Having not learned from the world's speedy bounce back from Covid, consensus thinking still underestimates the resilience of market economies, especially in the face of rate hikes and other well-recognized threats. For 2022's second half the most recent US data show a small gain at the expense of other countries.

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HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet Will Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Pull Down Inflation?, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/27/2022 New! Read
bullet Recession Still Nowhere To Be Seen, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 12/19/2022 New! Read
bullet Inflation Is About the Quality of Money, Not Quantity, David Ranson, Barron's - Economy & Policy, 11/25/22 Read
bullet Explaining, Diagnosing, Predicting and Curbing Inflation, CFA Stamford Webinar, 9/8/2022 - key: $b1Dt!.d Watch
bullet Interview Josh Jalinski, The Financial Quarterback, WABC 10/2/2021 Listen
bullet Expect Inflation To Surge In Japan, But Fall In The UK, S. Constable, Forbes.com, 7/30/2021 Read
bullet Interview with Charles Heller, Podcast, Liberty Watch Radio, KVOI, Tucson 4/4/2021 Listen
bullet DOES GOVERNMENT “STIMULUS” REALLY STIMULATE?, The Beacon, Independent Institute, 3/30/2021 Read

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