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 "At 3.5 %, the unemployment rate is back to what it was before the pandemic. But is that a return to full employment? The total of those not employed to the population of working age, at 40 %, is also back to what it was before. But it is still 4 points higher than its historical sustained low." Economy Watch – 4/23 |
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~ R. David Ranson, President and Director of Research HCWE & Co. |
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 Interest-Rate Outlook |
| Another false tradeoff: financial instability versus inflation |
| Some theorize that Fed success in lowering inflation through higher interest rates is producing or exacerbating financial instability. But history reveals no tradeoff between inflation and turbulence. The empirical fact is that low inflation is associated with a more stable financial environment. |
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Economy Watch |
| How healthy is the US labor market, and how much did the pandemic damage it? |
| At 3.5 %, the unemployment rate is back to what it was before the pandemic. But is that a return to full employment? The total of those not employed to the population of working age, at 40 %, is also back to what it was before. But it is still 4 points higher than its historical sustained low. |
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Economic Barometer |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of June 1, 2023 |
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Emerging-Market Selector |
| "Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of June 1, 2023 |
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Synopsis |
| Briefing Points on the Global Market Outlook |
| For all the talk of recessions, output in the Western world is not experiencing a consistent decline -- merely stagnation. The deceleration of the inflation rate due to last year's large drop in the price of oil has ended, and a reacceleration will accompany any rebound in energy prices. |
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