Markets Forecasting Markets

HCWE Publications

HCWE publications are available to clients and the public. Clients may request copies of all publications at any time. Students, researchers and the public may access legacy publication (more than two years old). See the following documents for recent and legacy publication lists:

Publication Highlights: Past month

Publications to date for current year: 2020

Legacy publications from 1992: Composite

Call: US 978-468-4575

The Markets Message
"At this stage in the economic recovery low-grade and distressed bonds offer similar returns to stocks, despite a predictably high rate of default. But they are much less volatile than stocks."
Tactical Asset Selector – 10/20
~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
HCWE & Co.

Publication Highlights as of November 1, 2020

Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Tactical Asset Selector
Slow but smooth: the recovery in high-yield bond prices
At this stage in the economic recovery low-grade and distressed bonds offer similar returns to stocks, despite a predictably high rate of default. But they are much less volatile than stocks.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Economy Watch
How forecasters got the pandemic economy so wrong
Unprecedented circumstances create opportunities for extreme errors of judgement. The forecasting consensus could hardly have been more wrong about the ability of the US economy to come back from mandatory shutdowns.
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Fixed-Income Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of November 1, 2020
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  International Barometer
"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of November 1, 2020
Market-Driven Tools for Asset Allocation  Synopsis
Briefing Points on the Global Market Outlook, October 2020
The price of gold has been falling back from its peak as economic and geopolitical anxiety declines. Credit spreads are still higher than they were before the pandemic crisis. But the stock market achieved its complete recovery many weeks ago. With prices back near an all-time record level, a normal tendency to be volatile has returned.

HCWE In the News

Wainwright in the news
bullet Letting Inflation Rip Higher is Deeply Flawed — Simon Constable, Aier.com, September 8, 2020 Read
bullet Gold Funds Fell ... Despite Coronavirus — Simon Constable, WSJ.com, April 5, 2020 Read
bullet Interview with Graham Walker, Independent Institute, April 24, 2020 View
bullet A Pandemic Is Not a Recession — R. D. Ranson, Independent Institute, April 14, 2020 Read
bullet Why You Shoudn't Count on an Economic Boom This Election Year — Randall Forsyth, Barron's, January 24, 2019 Read
bullet Why the Consumer Price Index Is Controversial — Barclay Palmer, Investopedia.com, June 25, 2019 Read