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![]() HCWE supports the institutional investment community in formulating investment strategies through intelligent use of market data and superior understanding of how markets have behaved over time. Markets forecast Markets! With many decades in the business of capital-market analysis and reporting, HCWE remains one of the most dependable resources for innovative research designed specifically for the institutional investor. We distribute our research findings in a variety of periodic reports with telephone and video conferences and occasional on-site briefings. Find out how HCWE Insight can work for you. Contact us at: +1(978)468-4575 or send us a message. |
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Jumping oil prices have sparked a new inflation surge - 01/18/2025 |
No economic indicator is a better forecaster of inflation in the short term than the price of crude oil. And it is independent of other indicators. Its recent jump is signaling a scary inflation picture for at least the next couple of months. |
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How government spending can undermine economic success - 12/22/2024 |
The recipient benefits when receiving unearned payments from Washington -- especially humanitarian aid. But over longer periods of time there is a hidden cost in self-reliance or resilience. This is quickly detectable in the impact of federal transfer payments on US growth. Read the most recent Capitalist Perspective now without charge. [ Read ] |
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Gold, oil and high-yield bonds - 12/30/2024 |
Together with the price of gold, the price of oil has predictive power, one year ahead, for the performance of junk bonds as well as equity markets. |
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To anticipate inflation, watch the price of oil - 01/29/2025 |
Since December there has been a large uplift in the price of oil, although it has fallen back since mid-January. Whether or not it lasts, the impact on reported inflation in the near future will cause policymakers much grief. |
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"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 01/31/2025 |
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"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 12/28/2024 |
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"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 12/18/2024 |
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"Market forecasts" for the coming twelve months as of 01/19/2025 |
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Highlights: - 01/31/2025 |
Washington's change of administration inserts many uncertainties into the economic and capital-markets picture as 2025 begins. But the baseline outlook is determined in large part by the policies of the past couple of years, boosted by rapid technological advances and by capital inflows from more distressed parts of the world. The inflation picture has been held down by a depression in global oil prices due partly to sustained geopolitical risk in Europe and the Middle East, as risk motivates capital to move into safe-haven assets at the expense of risky assets. But as 2025 opened, the price of oil rose dramatically, sparking an imminent surge in inflation. |
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