"Our expectations that the Fed would maintain its near-zero interest-rate policy for a long time have been correct, and a change now looks further away than ever."
Fixed-Income Barometer – 8/10 |
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~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics
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Play a brief audio introduction
from R. David Ranson, President and Director of Research.
Approximate runtime 3 minutes after download - broadband recommended.
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Wainwright's Monthly Client Conference Call
Each month Wainwright conducts a monthly Client Conference Call with David Ranson, John Tamny and, on occasion, guest speakers. The conference calls feature an up-to-the-minute recap of our most recent research findings as well as the opportunity for clients and invitees to get an immediate response to pressing questions. The call routinely takes place at 8:00 am PST on the first Thursday of the month and lasts approximately 30 minutes.
If you are already a client, please join us by logging in to the Conference Call page prior to the next call and following the instructions for participation. If you are not a client and are interested in becoming one, fill out a signup form and request a guest invitation to the next scheduled event.
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Publication Highlights as of September 1, 2010
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Get the stories behind the headlines here! |
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 The Capitalist Perspective |
| A negative federal spending multiplier |
| It has become a matter of faith in modern economists to assume that government spending causes the private economy to produce more. Both old and new evidence suggests the opposite. Read The Capitalist Perspective now without charge. [ Read ] |
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Interest-Rate Outlook |
| Why bond yields are not pricing in a high inflation rate |
| Traditionally, the yield on long-term bonds has been an indicator of inflation expectations. But with a short-term interest rate that is pegged at almost zero, bond yields tell us virtually nothing about inflation. |
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Equity-Market Outlook |
| Three-year median earnings: a more logical benchmark for market valuation |
| The ratio of price to a ten year average of trailing earnings is on its way to becoming the most accepted benchmark for equity-market valuation. But it can be improved on. |
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Strategic Asset Selector |
| We shouldn't fear falling home prices |
| Low housing prices are not necessarily a sign of economic weakness. Prior to the financial crisis the rise in prices was a sign of the depreciating dollar more than anything else. Attempts by policymakers to invest public funds in housing or to prevent house prices from falling rob the productive economy of the capital it needs to grow. |
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International Forecaster |
| Currency bets using "market signals" from gold and spreads |
| Like other investments, floating currencies are driven in part by economic performance. Tests confirm that price movements in the market for gold and corporate quality spreads can help guide currency bets. |
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Fixed-Income Barometer |
| Highlights: |
| Our expectations that the Fed would maintain its near-zero interest-rate policy for a long time have been correct, and a change now looks further away than ever. |
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Economic Barometer |
| Highlights: |
| The threat of a "double dip" in the world economy has passed, as corporate quality spreads reached a modest peak and fell back. The Baa/Aaa spread has stabilized near its long-term average. |
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Equity-Market Barometer |
| Highlights: |
| As expected, the US stock market has been rebounding from its May-June plunge. Beyond a full recovery from that, there is little upside potential. Style bets are close to neutral. |
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International Barometer |
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Foreign-exchange Value of the Dollar: Uncertain relative to the euro; declining relative to most major currencies over the next couple of years.
Equity Markets:
Most favored - Japan
Least favored - Hong Kong
Bond Markets:
Most favored - Germany, U.K.
Least favored - U.S.
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Get the stories behind the headlines here! |
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